COP 30 in Brazil: Where are companies headed in environmental matters by 2026? What are the climate and economic challenges facing regional markets?

The economic meeting held in Davos, Switzerland, from January 19th to 23rd was not only a platform where leaders, heads of state, investors, academics, and businesses exchanged views on the subject, but also an environmental debacle due to the absence of topics related to protecting our ecosystems caused by industrial policies.

Forum after forum, panel discussions, and networking events, a significant portion of the World Economic Forum fell short of the intellectual and, even more so, environmental standards that many companies and individuals in different countries expected to hear from these gatherings. While some parallel events and meetings may have addressed these issues, they represented a passive minority.

On the other hand, the spotlight, and a large number of media outlets, prioritized coverage of the lawsuit filed by the President of the United States against the CEO of a bank in that country; the speeches regarding a possible US invasion of European soil (Greenland); and the creation of a new peace council to try to end some of the regional conflicts.

Now, in economic terms, the weakening of the US dollar, reflected in the drop in the exchange rate, shows not only a significant reduction in the purchasing power and well-being of a large number of American households but also an increase in humanitarian conflicts and environmental crises in various economies.

Several factors have contributed to the depreciation of the US dollar over the past few years. At the same time, other currencies, including the Mexican peso and the euro, have strengthened due to increased export volumes, sound fiscal management, and continuous technological development. However, a significant driver of prosperity in various regions has been the global increase in investments not related to debt but rather to other types of assets. That is, the significant mobilization of financing toward human capital, green innovations, regenerative technologies, education, clean energy, and minerals generates high rates of return and dividend payments.

When a country establishes its economic and industrial policies, there are a number of variables to consider, not only to mitigate the effects of greenhouse gases but also to increase climate resilience. For example, increasing long-term investments in human development, arts and culture, environmental infrastructure, and community environmental centers. However, for these results to materialize in the long term and be financially sustainable, regional governments must not only focus on increasing public spending on technological advancements but also on creating a range of innovative types of fiscal support. One example is increasing the number of subsidies available to help small and medium-sized enterprises reduce the high investment costs associated with transitioning to clean and renewable energy generation.

According to World Bank data, in 2024, an upper-middle-income economy like Mexico generated 21% of its total electricity from renewable sources, including solar, wind, bioenergy, and geothermal. To put this in perspective, during that same year, Brazil generated 87%, the United States 24%, and Colombia and Canada 64%. This shows that high-income or industrialized economies are facing complex processes in transitioning to a green economy.

Likewise, in terms of spending control, as well as inflation, each country's balance of payments represents a key indicator to constantly monitor in order to increase the expansion of climate action. The situation we face at the beginning of 2026 is extremely alarming, as a large number of low- and lower-middle-income countries (e.g., Somalia, Uganda) continue to increase their sovereign debt. However, it is even more worrying that in industrialized countries (e.g., France, Germany), debt levels increase the possibility of a crisis not only in climate but also in institutions, welfare, and social cohesion.

Data indicates that a significant proportion of industrialized economies have increased their public spending on national security, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence and other technologies. In some Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, governments are paying up to twice as much in debt interest as they spend on education and up to 2.3 times more on healthcare.

As mentioned earlier, the decline in the value of the dollar not only increases gold mining but also the demand for gold as a commodity with a market-driven price that continues to rise among investors, governments, and criminal groups. Various economies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, South Sudan, and Ghana, continue to experience a series of armed conflicts fueled by criminal groups and the demand for gold. However, a high percentage of these economies have had to default in recent months because they did not have the necessary money to pay their obligations, including interest payments.

This year, 2026, Turkey will host COP 31, an event where the international community will review each country's environmental progress. It will represent not only a continuation of efforts toward climate resilience but also a review of the percentage of resources mobilized to decarbonize economies.

During the COP in Brazil, there was a strong commitment of financial and technical resources, valued at over $1.3 trillion, for climate action by 2035. This new investment record will increase the funds available to meet the objectives of the Loss and Damage Fund, signed at COP 28 in Dubai, but will also be used to continue combating the deplorable climate disinformation campaigns that manipulate people on social media, news channels, and through populist rhetoric.

In the case of Mexico, the short-term environmental and economic challenges for 2026 are as follows: 1) Expand collaboration between Canada and the United States to strengthen circular and low-carbon strategies in industries such as manufacturing, automotive, and textiles. Let's take advantage of the FIFA World Cup frenzy and increase investments in trade, medical, educational, and basic food sectors. 2) Increase subsidies for households and/or small and medium-sized enterprises transitioning to clean energy consumption and production; 3) Create a national unemployment insurance program for workers who lose their jobs; and last but not least, 4) Mobilize higher percentages of financing for key sectors such as human capital, businesses led by historically marginalized groups, community environmental centers, and climate action.